FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 1.0502/07.... Could test 1.0550

R: 1.0510-20 / 1.0550 / 1.0640-60
S: 1.0450 / 1.0400-390 / 1.0328

Looking at the big picture, we see that having rallied for three consecutive weeks now, from 0.9926 (14-Apr) to 1.0511 (1-May) USD-CHF is closing up on an important Resistance at 1.0550. It could possibly retrace after facing Resistance at this level. However, there is a bigger Resistance seen on the daily chart at 1.0640-60, the 50% Retracement of the fall from 1.1628 (25-Dec) to 0.9637 (17-Mar). The 21-week SMA is also at 1.0660.

The overall picture remains the same, as a big move has not been seen in the day so far. There is good Resistance at 1.0550 and at the same time a dip towards 1.0460 could attract buying interest.

A breakout of this range could decide the direction for the next week. A breakout on the upside could then possibly target 1.0641 (50% Retracement of the fall from 1.1628 to 0.9637), while a breakout on the downside would find some Support at 1.0400 and lead to a consolidation in the 1.0350-1.0450 range.

Holding:

• Long USD 10K at 1.0497, SL 1.0460, TP 1.0520

GBP-USD @ 1.9832/37... NFP ahead

R: 1.9900-20 / 1.9978
S: 1.9800 / 1.9750 / 1.9700-9675

The Cable fell during the day, but found Support at 1.9720-00 for a rally back to 1.9900. The direction for today is now mixed and indecisive till the US NFP is released. For now the market continues to range sideways between 1.9930-9630.

Within that, the immediate Support is at 1.9800, while 1.9750-25 is the stronger Support. Resistance will be faced at 1.9900-25, which also is the Max High for the day. Stronger Resistance will be faced in the region of 1.9978, if a further rise is seen.

AUD-USD @ 0.9343/47... Support at 0.9260 held

R: 0.9360-80 / 0.9415
S: 0.9260-50 / 0.9225-00 / 0.9140

The view on Aussie has not changed much during the day. Since the Support at 0.9260 has well, it has led to a rally to 0.9330 so far, which could well target 0.9380.

A break below 0.9260 could trigger a bigger collapse in the pair and target 0.9140, if the Support at 0.9225-00 also gives way.

Market Trade (at time of writing):

• Buy AUD 10K at current level, SL 0.9320, TP 0.9370